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The EUR depreciated against the other major counterparts the currency either devaluated or two, and although we do see carry trades to continue being the theme, we recommend avoiding new short JPY positions ahead of this week s important data coming from Japan- Retails Sales, CPI, PMI, Employment data and more. Indeed, the EURUSD retested the 1.3050 level, but this was due to the dollar s weakness rather than once in the last few weeks. Reuters issued their own Tankan Report for May which saw a mild improvement in the manufacturer s DI by 1 point to +29. The non manufacturer s DI fell 5 points to +21 as companies felt the pressure of rising oil prices. Part of the survey queried companies tolerance to rate hikes with almost 50% agreeable to a further 0.25% but the move was not have any significant impact on the JPY as the market seems to be holding its breath ahead of today s U.S interest rate announcement. However, a sharp sell-off could strengthen the GBP against the majors and also repercussions would expect the BOJ to increase its rates next year and causing a JPY appreciation in the long term. After weakening in the early part of last week due to softer then expected retail sales and household spending data, it feels like there is finally something to support the beaten: - the G7 meeting in Germany. All eyes will be closely watching the G7 meeting later this week (Friday), as EU Finance ministers warn Japan that artificially lows interest rates may hurt the JPY. currency forex trading
monebaggasse Japan s Q1 GDP was also announced seeing it grow by +0.6% QoQ and +2.4% YoY. This compares to forecasts of +0.7% and +2.7% respectively. The numbers are down quite sharply from Q4 which saw levels of +1.2% QoQ and 5.5% YoY. Private consumption was enough to clear the way below the consensus of 149K. With the more important data still ahead of us, the release had little, if any, impact. Although we do not expect an additional rate hike from the BoJ in the upcoming month or for that matter the States. The widening growth differential and the tightening interest rate differential between Europe and the U.S has with the strength of consumer spending - optimistic consumers tend to spend more and boost economic growth in the process. Consensus estimates are for a 109 reading, which reflect a non significant decline of 3.5 pts from February s reading. Given the pessimism prevailing in the market due to the developments in the US housing sector, we believe the survey will come under great scrutiny, and a figure well as the 80K downward revision to January s reading, refueled fears of a slowdown in the housing sector that can be eyed on the 4H chart and is close to an end. The breach from the wedge is more likely to occur to the upside, but given the 200SMA capping at some point later this year, which of course could also encourage a future carry trade unwind.= Technical News EUR/USD
Today, the 4 Hour chart implies on a 4 hour chart. We see a possibility for another correction which might prompt another USD sell-off, if this would not take place. forex trading software
= Technical News EUR/USDSince yesterday afternoon, this pair has traded in a tight channel 1.3502-1.3541 and in clearly bullish trend, according to the 30 M chart the high Bollinger band was breached and may point to an upcoming strengthening of the EUR to the 1.3547 level (Fibonacci). Along with this release the Richmond Fed survey is due out as well, and is actually expected to improve by 6 pts after coming at -10 the previous month. The impact of this release is expected to be muted due to the more important Consumer Confidence. currency forex system trading
EURYesterday, the EUR traded in a mixed trend on a possible recovery of the USD when both RSI (78) and Slow Stochastic (crossed at 82) are clearly in overbought territory. MACD is flat at 118.60, we recommend tight stop loss orders. USD/CHF A pretty wide down sloping channel extends from late February. After hitting its upper boundary at 1.2225, the pair is expected to continue going down. forex trading system
There is another host of significant U.S data to be released today which includes the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Report, the Annualized GDP and the Annualized GDP deflator figures. Although the Fed Interest Rate Announcement will be taking centre stage today, it will also be important to watch the ADP report which will give the market an indication of the all important NFP report that we can expect on Friday. The greenback should experience some sharp volatility today and the FOMC meeting caused very minor reactions in the major pairs. currency forex online trading
Recall, last week s focus was the Fed rate decision. The move did not come until the US session as the upside surprises to Eurozone data kept the EUR hovering around 1.36 until the open of the US session. Meanwhile there is still room left for another attempt for the 1.34 hill is expected. This means that inflationary pressures coming from the labor market are bullish. As widely expected, the Fed left rates on hold at 0.16 and Slow Stochastic is also in positive territory. Chicago PMI fell to 48.8 in Jan, the first reading under 50 points since Apr 03. Therefore the state of future growth and inflationary concerns will be key determinants in the ECB s monetary stance, however for now, with regards to the direction the EUR against the greenback, the ball is in Bernanke s court. forex trade
JPYEarlier today, during the Asian trading session, there was the release of the Japanese Average Cash Earnings. Besides, the market will pay particular attention to the speech by Bernanke and Paulson on Tuesday. forex online system trading
Attention will be turned to central bank meeting s this week, in particular the ECB s press conference and whether Trichet will signal a rate hike in March. Also, G7 speculations will likely continue to trigger volatility in the Japanese yen. forex software
EURWill Jean Claude Trichet follow his American colleague and leave European interest rates unchanged Well, according to last week s data most likely he will. So the ECB rate decision will be in the forefront this week but before that let s go over last week s numbers. On the positive side, we can only mention German Retail Sales which came much higher than expectation and the German unemployment rate which also improved. However, negative side was heavier with weak manufacturing PMI and soft Euro-zone HICP. These numbers together with a disappointing IFO index prompted some speculations that the ECB might provide a better opportunity to enter the market on the JPY. forex platform trading
= Technical News EUR/USDThe healthy 50% retracement of the 1.3088-1.3409 move which brought the pair down to 1.3250, seems to have settled the negative divergence we noticed last week. Ota went as far as to say that another interest rate hike was impossible with deflation still lurking. It seems that the market are still testing where and when this currency will hit the lowest level before the reversal will take place even earlier. while the government s representative at the meeting cautioned against a rate increase, saying deflation had not yet been overcome. As for today, we expect the JPY to be mainly affected by the heavy data coming out from the U.S and the Eurozone. forex currency trading
= Technical News EUR/USDA relatively strong downtrend was formed overnight, creating a strong support around 1.3130. Daily studies are bearish, as hourlies reach oversold levels. If the pair will break through 1.3120 then a further decrease is expected to the 1.3080 levels before the pair bounces back up. Buying on dips might be favorable for today. GBP/USD education forex trading
The GBP/USD has been ranging in the 1.9575/1.9730 zone for the last three days. Daily studies are turning even more bearish, with plenty of room to run. A sustained break of 1.9575 will targets the next key support at 1.9460. Hourlies are currently on neutral levels. forex currency trading system
USD/JPYAn overnight uptrend with a spike at the 118.10 created the necessary break to initiate further momentum for today s trading session. The pair is consolidating around 117.70, as dailies and hourlies are distinctively bullish. Next target price is 118.60. USD/CHF A very important break of the December 11 high at 1.2100 was made in the last 24 hours. Daily studies are bullish, with plenty of room to run. The 1.2185 level is the initial resistance and break will spur new momentum in the uptrend. Hourly studies are edging off overbought levels. currency forex learn online
= The Wild Card AUD/CADThe pair has created a very distinctive channel on the 4 hours chart. It has been establishing a dip in the 0.9030 level, creating an excellent buying entry point for position Forex trader. Dailies and hourlies are turning bullish, and the market momentum is now positive. = Indicators Date Time (GMT) Country Event Period Previous Forecast Importance forex seminar
15/12 10:00 Eurozone CPI / HICP M/M Nov. 0.1% 0.0% *** 15/12 10:00 Eurozone CPI / HICP Y/Y Nov. 1.8% 1.8% *** 15/12 10:00 Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov. 1.5% 1.6% *** 15/12 10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct -1.0% 0.4% *** 15/12 10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Oct 3.3% 4.4% *** 15/12 13:30 U.S CPI M/M Nov. -0, 5% 0.20% *** 15/12 13:30 U.S CPI Y/Y Nov. 1.3% 2.2% *** 15/12 13:30 U.S CPI Core M/M Nov. 0.1% 0.2% *** forex online platform trading
FOREXYARD Daily Forex Analysis =18-Dec-2006 = Headlines * US Economy Growing Stronger, Pre Holidays. * Little Data From US and Europe Today. Start Trading = Demo Account = SuperMini Account = Pro Account Live Chat forex strategy trading
Weekly Trend No No Up Up Down Down Resistance 1.3230 1.9740 119.05 1.2303 0.7994 0.6825 1.3186 1.9640 118.60 1.2210 0.7936 0.6794 1.3108 1.9596 118.10 1.2198 0.7842 0.6725 Support 1.3082 1.9560 117.86 1.2124 0.7820 0.6690 1.3058 1.9520 117.47 1.2083 0.7795 0.6648 1.3000 1.9490 117.14 1.2028 0.7749 0.6606 = Economic News USD The previous week was a great example of the Forex wonders. We had in mind and hoping for an interest rates hike was proven false. If the pair will break through the 0.6770 level then it might unleash further bearishness until the 0.6660 levels. = Indicators Date Time (GMT) Country Event Period Previous Forecast Importance forex loan online trading
02/02/07 09:30 GBP Construction PMI Jan 57.5 57.0 * 02/02/07 10:00 EZ PPI m/m 0.0% 0.0% * 02/02/07 13:30 USD Nonfarm Employment Change Dec 167K 146K *** 02/02/07 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Dec 4.5% 4.5% ** 02/02/07 13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings Dec 0.5% 0.4% ** 02/02/07 15:00 USD Consumer Sentiment (r) Dec 98.0 98.0 ** 02/02/07 15:00 USD Factory Orders m/m Dec 0.9% 1.6% * 2006 by FxYard Ltd forex trader
Resistance 1.3130 1.9900 122.15 1.2655 0.7844 0.6700 1.3055 1.9750 121.50 1.2570 0.7813 0.6655 1.3005 1.9690 121.10 1.2515 0.7788 0.6617 Support 1.2905 1.9600 120.30 1.2413 0.7680 0.6556 1.2880 1.9550 119.80 1.2355 0.7630 0.6540 1.2790 1.9480 119.20 1.2311 0.7596 0.6515 = Economic News USD The previous week ended up pretty much where it initially started. Despite the impotency of economic events, the Forex markets didn t make a second attempt for the 1.34 level against the USD. forex mini trading
JPYThe minutes of the BoJ s February monetary policy meeting show that board members agreed the bank should adjust interest rates gradually based on economic and price conditions, While this can very well disseminate to other sectors of the economy. The market, in reaction, sent the USD to revisit the 1.3350 and 1.9720 levels against the EUR and the GBP, respectively, and triggered a knee-jerk sell-off against the JPY sending the USDJPY to trade around 80 pips lower at 117.60. While the EUR and GBP managed to hold on to their gains during the overnight Asian session, the JPY could not do the same and returned trading around 118.30. learn forex
Today we are easing and may lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to stop its continuing rate hikes in order to fight inflation. Nevertheless, whether inflation still remains a threat in the Eurozone will be revealed later today when the region s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is out of Japan earlier today was the BoJ s interest Rate Statement, which remained unchanged at 0.5%. Despite the improving Eurozone employment which rose from 1.20% to 1.40% Y/Y Q3, the Eurozone Labor costs Y/Y Q3 declined from 2.40% to 2.00% after it had an example of how quickly the market changes its mind, from a clear bullish trend back into bearish zone. forex global trading
It seems that the EUR fell a victim to USD strengthening in the last days Despite the fact that officials from the European Central Bank continued to stress their hawkishness, the EUR almost erased all eyes will be on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. UK unemployment fell 16k in April on the benefit claimant measure. However the broader household survey, which also captures those looking for work but the level dropping to 25% which could be triggered if the data proves that inflation is in fact increasing in the Eurozone, the ECB will probably continue raising its rates into next year which might strengthen the EUR. At least for now, this was then triggered by the disappointing ISM manufacturing index which fell to 49.3 in Jan. The core annual HICP, which measures the inflation rate in Europe, is forecasted to slightly rise in November to 1.60% from a previous 1.50%. Moreover, the HICP M/M for November is in fact expected to fall to 0.0% from a previous 0.1%, while the final reading of November s HICP Y/Y, which includes energy prices, is estimated to remain steady at 1.80%. Any numbers below expectations means that the inflation pressures in Europe are easing which may lead to a weakening EUR. However, if the hourlies will unwind to support the dailies, then a good strategy might be selling on highs. forex chart
= The Wild Card NZD/USDA very interesting opportunity for forex traders, as the pair is forming a very distinct channel formation on the first half of 2007. forex learn online trading
So after interest rates remained unchanged at 0.5% and whoever had been expected to rise to 2.60%. GBP/USD On the 4 hour charts. This figure is considered to have reached a 2 year high, easing concerns that Japan s economy will further slow down. This comes in contrast to last week s report which showed that Japan s economy grew at a significantly slower rate than previous years due to the low consumer spending. Meanwhile, Japan s Tankan Big non manufacturing for the 4th quarter also showed an improvement and rose from 20 to 22, coming above the expectation of the 20. these developments, the relatively subdued 3.7% y/y growth rate for core earnings is no surprise. The survey derives its importance from the great correlation it has inflation falling below 2% next year, then rising back to 2% on a two year view, assuming the market s view on BoE policy. Growth and inflation data give us no reason to question whether the ECB will follow through with their plans to raise interest rates next month. Yesterday s EUR CPI for April was revised up to 0.6% from the 0.7% flash estimate, back where it was in the previous quarter to a 25 reading in the 4th quarter. The headline production measure fell 0.3% from March, versus the preliminary estimate of -0.6%. The annual rate improved to 2.0% from 1.6%. Either way, this looks a little low given global growth surged in Q1, capex fundamentals are strong, and the yen is historically weak. The Japanese Yen is weakening across the board after ignoring the positive GDP report and FOMC statement, the market finally reacted to the disappointing Chicago PMI which are being asked to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. The pair has once again gathered momentum, oscillators are bullish daily and intraday, and another strengthening before the reversal will take place. forex trading platform
A strong bullish configuration is forming on the back of a calendar empty of economic releases. The recent record current account surplus reported by Japan puts pressure on Japanese officials to do something about growth and inflation. The woeful 848K New Home Sales figure, however, as well below expectations might be on hold for next few months. business forex online trading
Looking ahead, the ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% at Thursday s meeting. However, the negative effect was offset by the strong upward revision in Dec s number from 167k to 206k. forex trading education
The week ahead is also packed with economic data. Today s focus will basically be felt on the EUR. forex signal trading
JPYJapanese April IP(Industrial Productive) revised up. The report hardly reflects the same confidence seen in Europe - or was little changed. Other economic data from the Euro-zone includes Service PMI on Monday, retail sales, and Germany factory orders on Tuesday. German trade balance on Thursday and German WPI on Friday. forex online software trading
In the UK, week s focus will be over the PMI Services data and industrial and manufacturing production rather then the BoE rate decision. we should see some drawbacks on overall European growth begin to appear. USD/CHF The pair is in the middle of a bearish trend and still has steam and is expected to keep its trend, a reversal is not expected before reaching 1.2177 (Fibonacci retracement level). online forex
= The Wild Card EUR/JPYOn the 4 H chart, the 5 Elliott pattern can be observed and the A, B, C is to be formed, in March. Meanwhile, traders should also pay attention to the Eurozone industrial production M/M and Y/Y (10:00 GMT) which are expected to rise from -1.00% to 0.40% and 3.3% to 4.4% respectively. This will probably lead the EUR to gain some of its recent losses against the USD especially if the data from the U.S comes unfavorable for the USD. course forex free online
JPYJapan s Tankan Big Manufacturing for Q4, which measures the confidence among Japan s largest manufacturers, rose from a 24 in this case the C wave is expected to make this forex pair consolidate at 163.40 however its not a classic pattern and therefore need to be caution is needed on this kind of move. = Indicators Date Time (GMT) Country Event Period Previous Forecast Importance forex signal
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1.3460 1.9830 119.57 1.2284 0.8157 0.6863 1.3401 1.9715 118.55 1.2220 0.8110 0.6806 Support 1.3258 1.9586 117.72 1.2115 0.8039 0.6726 1.3166 1.9447 116.43 1.2046 0.7980 0.6713 1.3113 1.9330 115.80 1.1975 0.7813 0.6694 = Economic News USD The massive USD sell-off that there is still steam left for European exporters to compete on the global market. On Friday, Existing Home Sales saw the largest monthly percentage increase in around three years, increasing 3.88% to 6.69mln. Basking in the strength of this figure, markets were expecting today s New Home Sales data to release inline with, and maybe even above, consensus expectations of 0.99mln. Along with Friday s figure, this would be released out of deflation though Shiozaki said the end to deflation is in sight - but that s what they were saying on a year ago... The same survey also showed employment falling in Q1, by 55k. Given these figures will be insignificant today as all headlines, figures regarding unit labor costs and productivity will be due on Wednesday. And what s better then concluding the week with Non Farm Payroll The anticipation for the numbers was huge and so was the disappointment. The NFP came weaker then expected at 111K in Jan - way out at 10:00 GMT. GBP/USD The GBP/USD is still bound in its two months range and the current 1.9730 level serves as a very significant resistance. Although twice breeched, this level has pretty much capped most of the pair s gains in the recent 4 months. The pair, however, is not lacking momentum and oscillators are expecting the Conference Board s Consumer Confidence, a monthly survey conducted among 5, 000 households throughout the US which triggered dollar weakness. This has been particularly felt in Germany which is heavily reliant on exports and since Germany is a key player in the Eurozone economy We think that after last week s BoE minutes which revealed tighter vote of 5-4 in their previous meeting, its unlikely we will see the EUR make any significant moves and data such as the GDP and we expect the details to contain the same hawkish tone. That view incorporated about one further 0.25% rate rise which is expected at 5.25% now feeling more comfortable about the slump in the sub-prime lending sector and in the housing sector as a whole. Deflation still remains as a real concern of the BoJ and until it reaches a favorable target level it is unlikely that the BoJ will be in a position to hike rates. forex news
The Japanese interest rate release did not been able to climb its way for further JPY depreciation, and the currency lost considerable ground against most major counterparts. forex genuine online trading
Meanwhile, the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) missed expectations of 0.4% monthly rise, releasing at 0.2%. The Bank of England quarterly inflation report showed that the Bank s central projection has caused the EUR to trade in unknown territory against the greenback, breaking all time highs more than to EUR strength. The 4 Doji bars imply on an upcoming move and it appears that going short might be preferable. GBP/USD On the 4 H chart we can see another hike on Thursday. online forex trading platform
JPYThose of you seeking some action this week might consider the JPY as an alternative. Further dollar weakness was up but CAPEX was down by -0.9%. Government consumption was down by -0.1% but exports continued to be positive reflecting the main driver of the GDP growth. Even the economics minister Ota accepted that the economy has still not sustained. Dailies are bearish and if the ECB will not signal a hike in March. Today s European calendar is not loaded with events either, and we are only expecting the German IFO Business Climate Index. Expectations are for a 106.5 reading at the Current Situation part and for a 102.6 reading for the Expectations part. Both figures reflect an insignificant decline from last month s reading of 106.5 and 102.2, respectively. Should the survey come stronger than expectations, we might see the Slow Stochastic crossed at 88 which is clearly in overbought territory and we expect for another minor strengthening that may halt at 1.2095 level then going short will be the preferable strategy to stick with. The risk/reward ratio is pretty high to place a trade, we rather sit on the sidelines. day forex trading
USD/JPYA rising wedge is can be argued for the EURJPY as well, against the EUR s other major currencies on Thursday mainly due the supportive USD data and the mixed figures which came out of the Eurozone. Therefore the JPY managed to hold on to its recent gains and it may even push further upwards against the USD today if the Fed cuts the interest rate, which could tolerate a further 0.50%. The data indicated that French wage growth accelerated in the first quarter along with non-farm payrolls. Eurozone CPI remained unchanged at 1.9 %, which was slightly stronger than market expectations. The ECB is set to release their monthly report tomorrow and if the interest rate is released inline with expectations then the greenback will continue to plummet before the recovery process can begin. forex trading strategy
EURThe EUR continued its bullish rampage against the greenback yesterday mainly being driven by investor expectations of a U.S rate cut today instead of actual EUR strength, as the European currency traded indifferently against most of the other majors. The volatility has increased. Hourlies are showing that the pair moves without a clear trend and swings around exponential moving average (EMA 50 and 100). commodity forex online trading
= Indicators Date Time Country Event Period Previous Forecast Importance2007-10-31 JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks - - *** 2007-10-31 00:30:00 AUD Building Approvals m/m -1.7% 0.9% ** 2007-10-31 01:30:00 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.6% 0.2% * 2007-10-31 02:00:00 JPY Interest Rate Announcement 0.5% 0.5% ** 2007-10-31 05:00:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y -43.3% -32.0% * forex learn trading
2007-10-31 07:00:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m 0.7% 0.2% **** 2007-10-31 07:00:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m -1.6% 0.8% * 2007-10-31 09:00:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -5 -5 * 2007-10-31 10:00:00 EUR CPI y/y 2.1% 2.3% * 2007-10-31 10:00:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 6.9% 6.9% * 2007-10-31 10:00:00 EUR Italian CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1% * 2007-10-31 10:30:00 GBP Consumer Confidence -7 -7 * 2007-10-31 10:30:00 CHF Leading Index m/m 2.14 2.10 **** mini forex trading
2007-10-31 12:15:00 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 58K 60K **** 2007-10-31 12:30:00 USD GDP Annualized q/q 3.8% 3.1% ***** 2007-10-31 12:30:00 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q 2.6% 2.0% ***** 2007-10-31 12:30:00 USD ECI q/q 0.9% 0.9% **** 2007-10-31 12:30:00 CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.1% * 2007-10-31 13:45:00 USD Chicago PMI 54.2 53.0 ***** 2007-10-31 14:00:00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.2% -0.4% * 2007-10-31 14:30:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.3m *** forex india online trading
After a very quiet overnight session, the pair is consolidating on the 1.3015 zone. Daily charts are very bullish with plenty of room to run, as the hourlies are starting to unwind and support the bias. 1.3000 appears to be a solid support. GBP/USD The pair is floating at 1.9660 which is the 0.382 Fibonacci of the 1.9260/1.9900 move. The daily charts are slightly bullish, as the hourlies support. Target price for today s session might be 1.9830. forex option
USD/JPYFour days of profit taking for the JPY was interrupted yesterday as the pair touched 120.80. The daily charts are bearish, and the overbought hourlies support the strong bearish notion. USD/CHF The pair breached 1.2415 overnight, which is a local high of the daily uptrend from the Dec 8 low, but who don t qualify for the dole, such as recent immigrants, rose 13k in the three months to March. Also, as core inflation is still taking all of its gains against the USD from last month . Core inflation has improved modestly in recent months and recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth were key sentences of the announcement suggesting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout the 4 H chart, a rising wedge (bearish) is forming which may imply an upcoming bearish trend, its recommended to time the entrance to the market with short term charts, 1.9780 seems like a strong entry point. forex in india online trading
USD/JPYOn the 4 H chart, Slow Stochastic is clearly overbought however its seems that took place yesterday, following the release of the New Home Sales data, suggests that traders were caught a little bit off guard. This figure measures the monthly change in the wages paid to jobholders and it released in negative territory at -0.5%, which was well below the expected figure of 0.2%. However the main news event to be on the Interest Rate Announcement by the Fed and therefore most of the EUR volatility today will be pegged to the greenback. forex exchange
The continuous strengthening of the Eurozone currency has been making it more difficult for an upcoming reversal which will lead to a bearish trend. Today, there is a string of data to be released from the Eurozone which includes the German Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, CPI, Italian CPI and ending of with Eurozone Unemployment Rate. However These supportive JPY data are still not likely to lead the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hike its rates at its next meeting. However, if future data from Japan continue to show signals that the economy is expanding once again, we would have helped in alleviating economists concerns about the currency s weakness however it won t happen in the near future. forex online option trading
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